What to expect from the Spring Forecast on 26 March
The Chancellor has announced the timing of her next formal report to Parliament.
Cast your mind back six Chancellors ago to Philip Hammond (aka Spreadsheet Phil). In autumn 2016, Hammond announced a change to the timings of Budget announcements, with a Spring Budget and Autumn Pre-Budget Report (PBR) to be replaced by an Autumn Budget and a Spring Statement. His aim was to move away from what had virtually become two Budgets a year, with the PBR introducing as many – if not more – tax changes than the real thing.
The new scheduling was welcomed by the likes of the Institute for Government, but fell victim to events, notably general elections and the Covid-19 pandemic. Since 2017, there have been as many Spring Budgets as Autumn Budgets and in one year (2022) when there was only (and notoriously) one unofficial mini-Budget presented by Kwasi Kwarteng. In her March 2024 Mais Lecture, Rachel Reeves made clear that were she to become Chancellor she would revert to Hammond’s schedule and have only one major ‘fiscal event’ each year, that is, an Autumn Budget.
That still leaves a Spring statement of some sort, not least because the Office of Budget Responsibility (OBR) is required by law to produce two reports each fiscal year on the state of the economy and the government’s finances. Shortly before Christmas, the Treasury announced that the 2025 ‘Spring Forecast’ would be presented to Parliament on 26 March, the day that the OBR’s report is to be published.
While the accompanying press release did not rule out any tax changes in March, it did say, “The Chancellor remains committed to one major fiscal event a year to give families and businesses stability and certainty on upcoming tax and spending changes”. Those words and the continued debate from last October’s Budget both point to no new tax measures being revealed on 26 March, even if the OBR numbers are disappointing. However, in January this year, after government borrowing costs rose, rumours were beginning to appear that spending cuts were in the offing.
The probable absence of tax changes is good news as we enter the season of planning for the tax year end and the start of a new tax year. The £40 billion of tax increases in autumn last year can only mean that tax year planning is particularly important for 2025.
